tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6264881409789872629.post6947418116641340781..comments2022-11-29T20:18:34.551-05:00Comments on Data Driven Gamer: Game 106: GalaxyAhabhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04131989140638867919noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6264881409789872629.post-86320133231090807112019-11-11T11:52:42.838-05:002019-11-11T11:52:42.838-05:00The formula reminds me of Lanchester's Laws, t...The formula reminds me of Lanchester's Laws, though this could easily be coincidental. The more shooters, the more likely that multiple shooters will aim for the same targets, which reduces each individual shooter's odds of scoring a kill... but still overall increases the group's number of expected kills. And the more targets, the less likely that multiple shooters will aim for the same targets (or perhaps make it more likely that a miss will become a hit), increasing each individal's accuracy, but still leaving the group with a larger number of remaining targets.<br /><br />"50% of time you will roll lower than 0.5"<br />Correction - 50% of the time you will roll lower than 0.71. But the rest of your paragraph still holds, because if you roll below than the mean, the enemy will be above the mean. About a sixth of the time, the enemy will be 50 points higher than you.<br /><br />The power differential likelihood can be expressed and graphed as:<br />Y = sqrt(X) - sqrt(1 - X)<br /><br />where X is a roll between 0-1, with fair odds for all possible values.Ahabhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04131989140638867919noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6264881409789872629.post-68590372431099809512019-11-11T02:09:32.529-05:002019-11-11T02:09:32.529-05:00Not sure I like that. Especially considering the t...Not sure I like that. Especially considering the to-hit formula of [Gunnery Factor]/100 * SQRT(Targets/(Shooters + Targets))<br /><br />The more attackers you have the less effective each are and the more effective the defenders are. (Clearly, this game follows the Law of Conservation of Ninjitsu: https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ConservationOfNinjutsu :P) <br /><br />And if you roll low for your gunnery factor, you're guaranteed to be against enemy that's always high. So there's no grace chance of enemy also having rolled bad accuracy factor to even it back. That makes the luck factor much higher, since 50% of time you will roll lower than 0.5. If both rolls were independent, you'd have very coarsely approximating 25% chance to roll high(er than 0.5) and opponent rolls low, 50% chance both rolls high or both rolls low, and only 25% chance that you roll low and opponent rolls high. This would make extreme swings of luck much rarer.Viilanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6264881409789872629.post-28461649228425216802019-11-10T21:05:05.672-05:002019-11-10T21:05:05.672-05:00Yep. Attacker is a random number 0-1 square-rooted...Yep. Attacker is a random number 0-1 square-rooted (meaning an average of 0.71, and a standard deviation of 0.21). Defender is calculated, so that Attacker^2 + Defender^2 = 1.Ahabhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04131989140638867919noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6264881409789872629.post-69929993203977990532019-11-10T12:04:27.156-05:002019-11-10T12:04:27.156-05:00Is the gunnery factor something that is re-rolled ...Is the gunnery factor something that is re-rolled every time you attack a planet? Ie. your fleet might reach D and attack with factor, say, 83 and then the same fleet moves on to E and attacks only with factor 52?Viilanoreply@blogger.com